India

General ravings, Potshots

ABC Primer on Artificial Intelligence for our new MPs

Mani 5 Comments

With the Lok Sabha elections 2024 well under way, we humbly offer selections from a small glossary of terms that, we hope, will help our newly elected Members of Parliament function effectively in a world that is increasingly being driven by Artifical Intelligence and related technologies.

Note: the glossary is still a work-in-progress; this selection of terms is inflicted on you merely by way of a ‘Beta Test’ (please see below for its definition).

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence is a scientific term first used over 2000 years ago in ancient India, when the great philosopher-military strategist Kautilya composed his Arthashastra. Artificial Intelligence (or AI as it is popularly known) describe the simulation—or mimicry—of normal human capabilities such as communication, learning, and decision-making by a political leader of limited or even infantile intellectual abilities. The creation of an AI-endowed leader is a complex R&D process requiring sustained support in the form of mass subliminal advertising campaigns, saturation social/main-scream media coverage, marketing techniques, retrospective psychological and academic profiling, continuous rewritings of political and historical lineage, and other such elements. Such long-term and multi-faceted support requires colossal financial and other resources. Hence, AI-endowed leaders are usually found only in the richest and oldest Indian political parties such as the Indian National Congress.  

Generative AI is a related term, used to describe AI projects that have to be sustained over many generations in order to create and stabilize an AI-endowed political leader.

OpenAI is the short and informal term used by media professionals and marketing/advertising agencies to indicate that a political party has openings, i.e., vacancies, for training aspiring political candidates who have suitably open and vacant minds to become AI-endowed leaders.

Algorithm

An Algorithm is a fundamental sequence of rules that define the path of an AI-empowered politician’s career. However,  Algorithm can take many meanings in different parts of India, mirroring our nation’s disunity in perversity.

For instance, among the Hindi-speaking states of north India, Algorithm [pronounced ‘alag-rhythm’] is popularly used to praise an AI-empowered political leader who is seen as following a different or unique path to political power. Thus, a Congress supporter might be heard saying: “Hamara pyaara neta Rahuljee alag-rhythm ko naachta hai!” [Loose translation: ‘Rahuljee, our beloved leader, dances to a different rhythm.”]

In Tamil Nadu, algorithm [pronounced ‘Alagiri-r-dum’: ‘the power of Alagiri’] conveys a sense of wistfulness—even sadness—at the fate of DMK leader M K Alagiri, who was once seen as the heir and brilliant Rising Son of the late and great DMK supremo K Karunanidhi, but whose political career has rapidly waned and sunk beneath the horizon like the setting sun … even as brother Stalin sets the state ablaze in his dubious light. Thus, a Madurai citizen might shake her head sadly and murmur: “Paavam, Alagiri-r-dum pochu!’ [‘Poor Alagiri’s power is gone!’]

In West Bengal, Algorithm [pronounced ‘All-Agree-Team’, meaning self-explicit] is a popular and explicit term coined by Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Bannerjee, to remind her Cabinet Ministers as well as party cadres that she expects unquestioning obedience from them of her every wish and command.

Important Algorithm-related terms include:

  • Classification—technique by which politician divides and target voters on the basis of class, caste, religion, language, sex, and economic status including various permutations and combinations of these criteria.
  • Regression—(1) a portmanteau word [regrets + session = regression] that describes the common phenomenon of political leaders expressing profuse regrets on ongoing  basis for ‘inadvertent’ insults and abuses that they directed at rivals during earlier campaign speeches. (2) Regression is also used in the sense of ‘backward motion’ to describe the political strategy of promising more and more sections of people that they will be classified as ‘Backward Classes’ so that they can reap benefits of affirmative action policies such as reserved seats in educational institutions, quotas in government jobs, and so on.   

Beta test 

Beta Test [from beta = son, daughter or any other kind of offspring; test = pariksha, trial] describes the complex science-based process—or more accurately, scions-based process— by which an AI-endowed son or daughter of a senior politician is miraculously elevated to the position of party leader and then repeatedly fielded as Lok Sabha  candidate to test his/her/their/unka popularity. A Beta Test may extend for several decades because the Beta candidate’s popularity remains as elusive as a phantom; a result that is explained by some Left-leaning political science scholars as a manifestation of Phantom Uncertainty, first postulated by the great German political scientist Weiner Heisenhamburger.

Big data

Big Data refers to the huge sets of data that are painstakingly compiled by all Indian political parties on their political rivals, pertaining to corruption cases, violent crimes, scandals involving moral turpitude, and affiliated criminal misconduct. Big Data is gathered and analysed on ongoing basis to reveal the weak points and vulnerabilities of political rivals, so that they can then be amplified and exploited during election campaigns.

The analysis of Big Data is called Data Mining, whichderives its name from the infamous Coal Mine Allocation Scam of the early 2000s when this technique was first used effectively by (then) Opposition parties headed by BJP.  Since then, Data Mining is being used by all Indian political parties; not only to persecute their vulnerable political rivals but also to engineer defections by these  political rivals into their  own party or alliance. However, this defection process is subject to strict scrutiny under the Anti-Defecation Law, which forms an intrinsic part of the Swacch Bharat Abhiyan Mission that has been launched to flush out malpractices from India’s electoral system.

Important note:  Data Mining must not be confused with TADA Mining – which is a now-defunct legal provision under which criminal cases could be filed against political leaders for illegally awarding mining licences in their constituency to loyal crooks, thugs, goondas, scoundrels and other close family members.

Chatbot

A Chatbot [from chat = chat-show host; bot = bought] is a celebrity TV news anchor who is retained by one or more political parties to spread the party viewpoint(s) and increase the popularity of their leaders. Every Indian political party has at least two or three captive Chatbots, and every Chatbot serves at least two or three political parties.  

Chatbots are characterized by extremely high intuitive abilities (a skillset also known as cognitive computing), extremely low ethical standards, and unmatched swiftness in switching their allegiance from one political party to another as the occasion demands.

Emergent Behaviour

Emergent Behaviour [root: Emergency] describes an AI-endowed leader who has begun to show unpredictable or unintended capabilities, including authoritarian and/or totalitarian tendencies in political outlook.

Large language model

A large language model is simply the technology that allows teleprompters to display speech-text in large font and point-size, so that all but the most inept AI-endowed politicians can read the text without fumbling.

Pattern recognition

Pattern Recognition refers to the innovative system by which the Party Symbol is tattooed on to a newly elected MP/MLA’s hand by  the Lok Sabha Secretariat or concerned Assembly Secretariat. The tattoo helps the MP/MLA  remember to which Party he/she/they/it  presently belongs when the time comes to vote on a Bill  that is tabled in the House. This is of vital importance, as MPS and MLAs switch parties at the drop of a topi (or a dropped call from Enforcement Directorate).  Thus, Pattern Recognition helps MPs and MLAs avoid inadvertent cross-voting, and thereby saves them from painful disciplinary action in the form of whipping by their party Whip.

[to be continued…upon my release from Tihar Jail]

General ravings, Potshots

Arvind Kejriwal wins – gets Anticipatory Jail!

Mani 3 Comments

I write this at a time when our most beloved  Arvind Kejriwal, Chief Minister of Delhi and Aam Aadmi Party leader, has been arrested by the Enforcement Directorate and remanded by court order to the ED’s custody for 7 days.  

As a long-term admirer of Kejriwalbhai, I am overjoyed at his arrest and happy for him!  

After all, Kejriwalbhai has loudly and energetically campaigned for his own arrest since 2021, but despite this the nasty evil BJP-led Union Government has consistently denied him his right to be arrested.

In keeping with his selflessness and generosity,  Kejriwalbhai has also ceaselessly and energetically campaigned for the arrest of leaders of other political parties, such as Sonia Gandhi, since 20i5. However, we’ll have to wait and see whether Kejriwalbhai  emerges victorious in those battles too.

Kejriwal’s decade-long struggles to be arrested – rewarded at last

With his arrest now, Kejriwalbhai has achieved yet another splendid victory over his political opponents, that too just before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.  

We can rest assured that Kejriwalbhai, and his AAP, will reap rich dividends in the LS polls from the sympathy voters, empathy voters, and above all, liquor-loving voters of India who had never before been able to buy booze at such cheap prices in Delhi at public expense, while AAP’s ‘New Liquor Policy’ ran for about 9 months during 2021-2022. Indeed, data in public domain show that during that time, tipplers were flying into Delhi in unprecendented numbers from all over India – and even from Malaysia, Indonesia, and reportedly Alaska and Inner Mongolia – to buy choice liquor by the mega-litres.

This liquor-inspired air travel to and from Delhi, by the way, greatly contributed to the profits of public and private airlines during 2021-2022… so don’t believe the Modi-led BJP government when it tries to take credit for India’s increased air traffic!

Meanwhile, there is much hysterical speculation in main-scream media about whether Kejriwalbhai can continue as Chief Minister of Delhi while lodged in jail, as declared by his AAP-compatriot Atishi .

I pause now to ponder this weighty question. Can he?  

A throaty chuckle interrupts my musings.

It is the Resident Lizard, whom I have grown to respect for being a political analyst par excellence – though admittedly he’s become a bit of a cynic of late; probably due to his highly acidic diet of flies and assorted bugs.

The Resident Lizard is stretched out beside a bottle of Holland gin with a distinctly inebriated look in his soulful eyes.

“Of course Kejriwal can be Chief Minister while in jail,” he declares firmly.  “It is a practical and low-cost administrative solution in public interest. Particularly so, because Kejriwal  will join a number of his AAP Cabinet colleagues who are already in jail.”

“But is it appropriate?” I ask. “How can we have someone behind bars as leader of the state?”

 “Of course it’s appropriate,” he snaps, after snapping at a passing mosquito and missing by millimeters. “Kejriwal and his colleagues are facing charges in a Liquor Scam; so what better place for them to run the state from than behind bars, be they liquor bars or steel bars?”

Abruptly,  he twitches his tail and scuttles off in pursuit of a high-velocity fly.

I muse over his words as I stare at the gin bottle, whose contents appear to have shrunk considerably since I last saw it in October 2023.

Has my reptilian associate been quaffing gin merrily through his winter months of hibernation?  Warming his spirits with spirit as it were, like so many citizens happy with AAP’s liquor policy?

We shall never know.  

Still, it does not take away from the strength of the Resident Lizard’s words – or of the remaining gin.

Meanwhile,  I can only reaffirm my solemn vow to remain a Staunch Votary of AAP, and to share a crude vision of what the inmates of Tihar Jail might be privileged to see in coming days.

Jai Hind! Hail Kejrubhai!

Beastly encounters, General ravings, Musings, Potshots

What’s in a Mane?

Mani 9 Comments

Once upon a time, not so long ago, while on a stroll in my neighbourhood, I met a girl, aged about 15, long-faced and short-haired, wearing that sulky, world-weary and prematurely cynical expression that’s so fashionable among today’s young urban elite activist-revolutionaries.

“Have you seen Bombshell?” she asked. Her tone was imperious, peremptory; her accent a pleasant blend of the USA’s North-East and India’s North-West.

I gaped at her. “Bombshell? Which…what…whose bombshell?”

She frowned. “Bombshell’s a cat,” she snapped.

“Oh..ah..yes, I see, your cat! You call it…er… Bombshell? “

“Bombshell’s a He or Him, not an It,” she replied in the withering tone youngsters reserve for dinosaurs like me who come from a time when Tweets were what birds did and Spotify was what leaking fountain pens did. “And you’re saying his name all wrong; his name’s pronounced Zhomm-Shell, not Bombshell. “

I gaped some more and her frown deepened. “Well, have you seen him?” she demanded.

“No, no,” I mumbled. “Meaning, I know a few cats around here, we get along quite well, but I don’t think I’ve met your cat…er…Zhomm-Shell. What a nice name…ah… how do you spell it?”

“Why, J-E-A-N -M-I-C-H-E-L, of course…how else could one spell it for Chrissake?” she snapped.

Wisdom dawned in my foggy brain. “Ah, so you’ve named your cat Jean-Michel?!”

“Yeah, yeah, his name is Jean-Michel,” she replied, slowly and patiently, stressing each word and syllable as a primary school teacher would while explaining something to a particularly dense child. “And Jean-Michel’s not MY cat; he’s a stray. He’s just one of the many stray cats that live here, I’ve given them all names, do you understand? So that I can keep an eye on them…”

“Ah, I see,” I muttered weakly, not seeing at all.

“I think I’ll have to change Jean-Michel’s name, ” she went on, shaking her head sadly. “People are so dumb …especially grown-ups…they can’t even pronounce Jean-Michel properly…”

“But does Jean-Michel know that you’ve named him Jean-Michel?” I asked. I was genuinely interested to know, because I like cats and do believe cats are extremely sharp and sensitive creatures. I also wanted to ask her whether Jean-Michel the cat had learned to pronounce his own name properly, but alas, I didn’t get the chance. Her face turned deep red at my query, she stamped her foot hard, glared at me, let out an explosive “Ooff!” which sounded exactly like a bombshell or rather a Jean-Michel (and even that “Ooff” had a Californian twang in it, mixed with a trace of a Scottish burr, or maybe it was a Karol Bagh rasp)… and then, with a snort of disgust she stormed off looking for the elusive feline.

I remember Jean-Michel the cat now, as I contemplate the national hysteria that’s brewing around the names given to two slightly larger cats in Bengal: a lion named Akbar and a lioness named Sita.

For the benefit of readers who might not be familiar with the facts of this case – which, judging by the saturation media coverage it’s receiving, is a case of supreme national importance that might well determine India’s Standing in the World as a Secular Democracy – here is a quick summary:

  • On 12th February, 2024, two large cats – a lion named Akbar and a lioness named Sita – were transferred from the Sepahijala Zoo in Tripura to the Siliguri Zoo in West Bengal.
  • According to the West Bengal government, the cats had been given their respective names while in Tripura. However, an official from Sepahijala Zoo refuted this allegation, saying: “We had sent a lion and a lioness named Ram and Sita respectively from Sepahijala to Siliguri. We are not aware of what happened at the destination.”
  • On 17th February the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) filed a case in the Calcutta High Court urging the Court to take immediate corrective action, including “changing the lioness’s name to a non-religious one and directing authorities to refrain from using religious names for animals in zoological parks.”
  • On 22nd February a single-judge bench of the High Court directed the West Bengal government to “reconsider” the names of the two hapless cats. During the proceedings, the judge asked the state government’s counsel: “Mr Counsel, will you yourself name your own pet after some Hindu God or Muslim Prophet … I think, if any one of us would have been the authority, none of us would have named them [the cats] as Akbar and Sita...goddess Sita is worshipped by a large majority of people in the country and Akbar was a successful and secular Mughal Emperor.”
  • Meanwhile, West Bengal Forest Minister and TMC leader Birbaha Hansda added her own twist to this cats’ tale by declaring that the whole issue was ‘dirty politics’ by VHP. “We didn’t name the animals which came to us from Tripura Zoo…It is our Chief Minister (Mamata Bannerjee) who will formally give names to the animals...”

On 24th February, the Tripura government suspended Shri Prabin Lal Agarwal, Principal Chief Conservator of Forests and Ecotourism, for his alleged role in the lion-naming controversy. While a copy of the suspension order against the unfortunate Mr Agarwal is not readily available, highly misplaced and usually uncreditable sources say that he is being accused of “not following the Prescribed Guidebook on Secular Methodologies and Practices for Naming Plants, Insects, Terrestrial and Aquatic Animals, Birds, and other non-Human Species, thereby hurting the religious feelings of the lion and lioness concerned as well as upsetting the secular feelings and communal harmony of India’s citizens as a Hole.”

Seriously, O Sinless Reader, this whole business is so very distressful and confusing.

How sad, that all it takes to set a cat among the pigeons in India is to name a cat – a cat!!! – after some historical and/or revered figure.

Surely Akbar the lion would still grunt and belch in his leonine manner and laze around scratching his ample belly if he had instead been named Subramanian, or Sukhwinder, or Prafullah, or Jalaluddin, or Joseph? Surely Sita the lioness would still wolf down her daily rations with feminine growls of contentment had she been named Yvonne or Shahnaz or Jaswanti or Girija or Harbans Kaur?

Now I fondly recall a monitor lizard that used to hang about our terrace here in Delhi, in the 1990s. We named him Ruknuddin. Why Ruknuddin? We don’t know…but it seemed the perfect name for him. Ruknuddin never knew he was called Ruknuddin, of course; nor did he care…he was too busy being a monitor lizard, which role included regular shikar of sparrows, mynahs, pigeons, squirrels, and other citizens that visited the birdbath on the terrace. [To know more about Ruknuddin, please do click here].

What’s in a name, after all? Or in a mane, for that matter?

Especially, we Hindus ought to understand this….considering the joyous elan with which we attach the names of our Gods and Goddesses and Saints to virtually every sphere of existence, from our own names to our business undertakings. Whether we live in Agartala or Alapuzha, Delhi or Dibrugarh, Madurai or Morena, all we need do is step outside to see a plethora of establishments with names like Shiva Wines, Vishnu Hair Dressers, Sai Stationers, Krishna Dental Clinic, Parvati Shoe Store, Ganesh Liquors, Uma Opticals, Murugan Pathology Lab…

To me it’s not ‘wrong’ to do this; it’s not ‘blasphemous’; it’s simply wonderful! Because it reflects a healthy carelessness and irreverence for blind obeisance, unthinking religious orthodoxy.

It underlines the idiocy of reading ‘sacrilege’ into the naming of a lioness as Sita.

So, get off your moralistic and hobbled hobby-horse, O ye VHP comrades..your outlook and behaviour are almost absurd enough to make a Mamata Bannerjee laugh.

To help my VHP colleagues – and indeed the learned judge who presided over the single-judge bench of the Calcutta High Court – appreciate the irrelevance of names as understood in ancient Hindu culture, and thereby shed their needless anthropomorphism and soothe their over-heated cerebro-neural systems, I urge them to listen to ‘Madalasa’s lullaby’ from the Markandeya Purana…here’s a nice rendition with English sub-titling.

Oh…and just to help my friends experience the healing effects of a chuckle, I also offer an ancient, much-disavowed and universally applicable joke on the fleeting importance of names when it comes to the deeper aspects of Life (apologies to those who might find it a trifle risque):

A man boards a flight from Delhi to Mumbai and takes his seat. As he settles in, he glances up and sees a gorgeous woman boarding the plane.He soon realizes she’s heading straight towards his seat. Lo and behold, she takes the seat right next to his.

.Eager to strike up a conversation, he asks: “Business trip or vacation?”

She turns, smiles & says, “Business. I’m going to the Annual World Sexologists’ Convention in Navi Mumbai.”

He swallows hard. Here is the most gorgeous woman he has ever seen, sitting next to him, and she’s a sexologist!

With superhuman effort he maintains his composure, and calmly asks, “What’s your role at this convention?”

“Oh, I’m delivering the keynote address,” she replies brightly. “I’ll draw on my research as well as personal experience to debunk some of the popular myths about sexuality.”

“Really?’ he says, swallowing hard. “Er…what myths are those?”

“Well,” she replies, “for example, there’s this popular myth that men from the African continent are the best endowed, when in fact, it’s the Indian Punjabi Sikh who is most likely to possess that trait. Another popular myth is that Spanish men make the most gentle lovers, whereas in fact the Bengali man is far gentler in lovemaking. However, in general women have found that the best all-round lover, scoring the maximum in all erotic criteria, is the Tamilian man…”

At this point the woman suddenly pauses and blushes deeply. “I’m sorry, I might be sounding a little forward,” she murmurs. “Perhaps I shouldn’t be discussing all this with you…why, I don’t even know your name!”

“Venkataswami!” the man yells. “Venkataswami Chidambaram Mukherjee! But all my friends call me Gurvinder Singh…”

Ancient writings, Musings

Lunar Steps, Stellar Vision

Mani 4 Comments

Last evening – 23rd August 2023 – I was on the ISRO website, watching in awe that turned to delight as Chandrayaan-3’s Vikram lander gently settled on the South Pole of the Moon, 386,000 km away from us.

And now, even while I write this, the little robotic Pragyan buggy is wandering about that incredibly bleak and cold plain like a cautious and patient beetle on wheels, setting up and testing its instruments to conduct an array of scientific experiments which will be live-streamed back to ISRO and Earth as lunar dawn breaks over the Pole…a dawn that will almost instantly become daylight of a brilliance that we Earthings cannot imagine, even though the Sun will hover just above the lunar horizon. And this coming lunar day will last 14 Earth days, and raise the temperature of the flatlands around Vikram and Pragyan from (-) 100 degrees C to a broiling (+) 50 degrees C….even while the permanently shadowed regions below tall mountains and in the depths of craters will remain a metal-cracking (-) 200 degrees C.

I read a lot of science fiction in my time. This unfolding reality on the Moon awakens so many memories: of the timeless, often prescient stories of H G Wells, Isaac Asimov, Walter M Miller; ofArthur C Clarke’s ‘A fall of moondust’ and ‘2001: a space odyssey’…

It also brings memories of an op-ed article I wrote just over 20 years ago (Jan 2003), in response to an Indian Express editorial on the mathematician Ramanujan; an editorial that, I felt, exhibited the shallow – almost fashionable – cynicism with which much of Indian media regarded (and, alas, continue to regard) any scientific achievements by Indians. Here it is:

Signs of good science

http://archive.indianexpress.com/oldStory/16583/

The editorial ‘Remember Ramanujan?’ (IE, January 5) observes that there is ‘very little happening in Indian science and technology’. Actually, the women and men who have designed and launched our weather and communication satellites, found new ways to store N-wastes, sequenced the rice genome, developed Bt cabbage and biodiesel… they, and others like them, are doing world-class, original science.

Our own lack of scientific temper makes us reluctant to acknowledge Indian work until its worth is ‘certified’ by some western agency, a perilous tendency in today’s fiercely competitive world. G.H. Hardy, who discovered the genius of Ramanujan, was not the first mathematician to be sent Ramanujan’s manuscripts. As C.P. Snow reveals, there had been two before him, men who ‘do not emerge out of the story with credit.’ Both were English mathematicians, both of the highest professional standards; yet each returned Ramanujan’s manuscripts without comment… and this was in 1913!

Recently, a team of scientists headed by N.C. Wickramasinghe conducted a series of balloon experiments and discovered that viable living cells are falling to Earth from outer space at the rate of a few tonnes per day. The evidence confirms the theory proposed by Fred Hoyle and Chandra Wickramasinghe in 1981 that all life on Earth has sprung from living cells stored for aeons in frozen interstellar gas-clouds, and that these cells constantly travel to Earth via comets on the pressure of solar radiation.

‘‘Genes are to be regarded as cosmic,’’ they wrote. ‘‘They arrive at the Earth as DNA or RNA, either as full-fledged cells, or as viruses, viroids, or simply as separated fragments of genetic material. The genes are ready to function when they arrive… The problem for terrestrial biology is not therefore to originate the genes, but to assemble them into whatever functioning biosystems the environment of the Earth will permit…’’

The implications are staggering. This effectively scotches the idea that life developed from some kind of ‘primordial soup’; Darwinian ‘natural selection’ is reduced to a mere fine-tuning mechanism that develops variety within living species! Among Wickramasinghe’s team were two Indian scientists Jayant V. Narlikar and P. Rajaratnam.

Yet how little attention we have paid to their work; how quickly we have forgotten them.

Indeed, there is need for more funding for R&D, for research institutions to be freed from the stifling, enervating clutches of babudom. But we too must understand that technology spins off from long-term missions; that progress in science, as in sports, comes only from hard work and perseverance; that far more important than applauding success, is consistent support and encouragement in times of failure.

We need to talk and write more about science in mainstream media. And especially, we must shed our habit of greeting every new idea with withering contempt. Not long ago, Dr Kalam’s idea of a Moon mission was met with widespread opposition, even derision. Yet today, we bemoan the fact that China has stolen ahead in the race by launching its first space launch vehicle.

[P.S.: Isn’t it wonderful how India has not just caught up but forged ahead in this race…hats and topis off to ISRO and the multitude of organizations and industries and academic institutes and individuals, young and old, that have striven through these decades to make Chandrayaan-3 and other space missions reality…more power to them, in the space laps that lie ahead! ]

General ravings, Potshots

Lok Sabha elections 2024: why I’ll vote for I.N.D.I.A

Mani 8 Comments

Can we transition from “Indira is India” to “I.N.D.I.A is India”?

O Gentle and Most Valued Reader, I begin this rant with an Affidavit in the standard UNESCO-disavowed format.  .

Affidavit
I, R P Subramanian, do solemnly swear, affirm and declare in this public forum as follows:
1. That I am a registered Indian voter.
2. That in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections 2024, I shall cast my vote in favour of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (hereinafter called ‘I.N.D.I.A’ which expression shall include all its splinter groups, breakaway factions, turncoats, defectors, defecators, and assigns).
3. That I undertake to cast my vote favouring I.N.D.I.A as declared above, barring unexpected and/or unforeseen events that might prevent me from doing so including and not restricted to death; grievous injuries caused by assault(s) by supporters of any and all political parties; Acts of God (which term includes Acts by any and all Religious, Secular, Communal, Communist, Woke, and Somnolent deities and prophets of all sexes and genders present and future); and any and all other force majeure events and phenomena.
4. That I execute this undertaking in full and complete infirmity and unsoundness of mind and senses, and under no compulsion or threats whatsoever from any entities, real or virtual.  

The provocation for my Affidavit is the recently concluded Lok Sabha debate on the No-Confidence Motion moved by the I.N.D.I.A coalition of Opposition parties against the BJP-led NDA coalition; a three-day debate that ended with the entire I.N.D.I.A coalition walking out of the House even before the No-Confidence Motion that they had themselves brought in could be put to vote.

Please don’t get me wrong: I don’t blame the Congress-led I.N.D.I.A coalition for walking out of the Lok Sabha. They did so only to escape further serious injuries to their already-bruised egos.

By the second day of the debate, the signs were clear to me—as clear as Rahul Gandhi’s development agenda for India— that the MPs from I.N.D.I.A were vying with one another in making supreme idiots of themselves as they spoke in the House. Indeed, only sheer will-power and extra-strong coffee gave me strength to hear and watch Rahul Gandhi himself prate about nothing in particular with his characteristic hoarse vehemence, oratorial incoherence, analytical incompetence and overarching adolescence—even as his colleagues cheered him on and thumped their desks—before exiting with an aerial smooch seemingly directed towards a cluster of women MPs in the Treasury benches (although a usually unreliable Congress source tells me Rahul’s smooch was actually aimed at PM Narendra Modi, for whom Rahul possesses deep affection and love).

But most painful of all was to hear and watch MPs of the BJP and other NDA parties, from Jyotiraditya Scindia to Modi himself, systematically tear apart and gobble down the MPs and constituent parties of  I.N.D.I.A with all the gentleness and grace of a pack of hungry wild dogs dining on a felled buffalo.

After watching this farce of a debate, O Dear Reader, I confess that I was wrong in my earlier prediction that the BJP will be wiped out in the 2024 elections. I now realize that it is the Congress-led I.N.D.I.A coalition that is in danger of being wiped out in 2024.

Because, judging by its disgraceful performance in the Lok Sabha these past three days, I.N.D.I.A has placed itself on the electoral equivalent of life support within weeks of its launch.

No amount of hagiographic reportage by Congress’ captive, Rahul-captivated media can conceal the harsh truth: that I.N.D.I.A was taken to the dhobi-ghats, beaten, wrung, and hung up to dry by the BJP-led NDA in the Lok Sabha.

Adding to my alarm at this latest evidence of I.N.D.I.A’s feebleness and the BJP-led NDA’s ever-increasing strength and popularity, is news from abroad that a leading American singer, Mary Millben, has now expressed her support for Modi.

Source: India Today.

I am slightly consoled by my Congress source’s assurance that Mary Millben’s support for Modi  doesn’t mean anything.  “Arre Subramanian-saar,” he says, “this Mary Millben is not even an American; she is actually an Indian Modi-bhakt living in the USA under false pretences, with some hidden agenda to create Akhand Bharat! She is a Gujarati girl; her real name is Meera Millie-ben…”

Yet I still worry.

India needs a credible Opposition.

India needs a credible alternative to Modi in 2024!

I.N.D.I.A needs my support to get off  its life support!  

And so, I shall vote for I.N.D.I.A in 2024…provided I.N.D.I.A still exists when the elections happen.

May I conclude with an inspirational slogan, which I hope Rahul Gandhi will adopt during his campaigns:

Voters of India, unite ‘neath the banner of I.N.D.I.A

You’ve nothing to lose but your brains, which we’ll replace with Pyaar!

Jai Hind.

 

Musings, Remembering

Nation Notions

Mani 7 Comments

I was with a friend in her car. In the back were three more friends, all women, one of them Indian, the other two German:  a mother–daughter duo.  

It was the evening of January 25th, 2020, cloudy and chill at dusk. We were caught in a traffic jam—the only saving grace being that we were on the lovely Amrita Shergill Marg, bordering the Lodhi Garden in central Delhi, and so there was plenty of foliage (albeit blurry) to look at and discernible quantities of that rare element, oxygen, in the diesel-and- petrol -scented air. 

After about 30 minutes of crawl-and-halt, we drew alongside a small group of policemen, who were trying with limited success to keep motorists to their lanes.

“Jai Hind,” I greeted them, as I always greet personnel of our armed forces and police.

 “Jai Hind,” they responded.

“What’s going on?” I went on in my semi-tapori Hindi, “Why this jam?”

“The result of a little VIP transit, sir…it’ll all be cleared in a few minutes.”

I thanked him, and we sat in silence for a moment. And then my young German friend spoke up softly, clearly, in English: “Why did you say that to him?”

Puzzled, I looked around at her. Her Indian friend giggled but didn’t say anything. “Say what?” I asked.

“You said ‘Jai Hind’ to that policeman…why?” she murmured, now slightly embarrassed. Her mother, who spoke very little English, looked on in bemusement. Her Indian friend giggled again, in a slightly self-conscious way.

The question was simple, perfectly straightforward;   but in a flash I realized what it was she was really asking and why she was asking; and what the young Indian’s slightly nervous giggle might mean too. It was January, 2020—that was the time when the Shaheen Bagh street blockade was at its peak; when young women and men not just in India but across the world were charged up with the heady passions and revolutionary slogans of the quaintly-oxymoronic  ideology known as Left Liberalism; when any word, any sign, of showing solidarity with or pride in or support to even the idea of India was not only old-fashioned but had somehow become equated to becoming a ‘Modi-bhakt’, a ‘nationalist’, a ‘fascist’, an anti-Muslim fanatical Hindu. In India, and across the world.

It was a time when even uttering ‘Jai Hind’ more or less branded me as a narrow-minded bigot unless otherwise proven…or clarified. 

The two young women were – are- very dear to me; the question was honest, direct and clear; and so I thought awhile before I replied.  “’Jai Hind’means ‘Hail India’, or ‘Victory to India’ if you like,” I said. “I greeted that policeman with ‘Jai Hind’ because I am proud of my country, I love my country, and tomorrow is our Republic Day—the day when, in 1950, a couple of years after winning independence from British rule, India adopted its own Constitution and became a full-fledged Republic.  So then,  for the first time we Indians had drawn up and given ourselves our own rights, our own guiding principles to live by, the systems by which we would govern ourselves and so on…all the things that we had fought for and won,  and that we must hold on to and defend.  And so January 26th is a good day to remember.  A good time to say ‘Jai Hind’, and of course that’s why ‘Jai Hind’ is a good way to greet military personnel, police…”

I trailed off, wondering whether I’d made any sense at all. She’d listened attentively as I spoke; silent, clear-eyed, nodding slightly. 

“Ah yes, of course, now I see,” she murmured. In the meanwhile her mother, who had been listening as intently to our exchange, asked her daughter to explain in German, which she promptly did.

And then, both of them smiled and chanted: “Jai Hind!”

And we all chorused Jai Hind, and soon the jam cleared, and merriment returned and dissolved the tedium.

A trivial episode, no doubt; but for me it was important…and lingers in memory.  

I will always be grateful to my German friend for her question.

It helped me think a little, reflect a little, learn and re-learn and un-learn much more than a little.  About India, about what this insanely chaotic, wonderful nation means and what it is founded on, and what holds it together…and what can and does tear it apart.

Jai Hind.

General ravings, Potshots

Scientific Rigor Mortis

Mani 2 Comments

“Never try to walk across a river just because published data informs you that it has an average depth of four feet.”

—Martin Friedman

I have just gone through this learned study titled “Three New Estimates of India’s All-Cause Excess Mortality during theCOVID-19 Pandemic” by USA-based Abhishek Anand, Justin Sandefur, and Arvind Subramanian. (It is a free download at Centre for Global Development: https://www.cgdev.org/publication/three-new-estimates-indias-all-cause-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic )

I extend my fervent thanks to the authors for this entertaining study. I do believe it is hilarious enough to make a coronavirus cackle in delight.

I say this in all seriousness and sobriety, and with all my authority as a science scholar of international disrepute from the prestigious North Eastern Hill University, who has plumbed unique and unparalleled depths of non-achievement in the most obscure and abstruse disciplines.

The Introduction to the study begins with a most earnest declaration: “We want to emphasize that we are not estimating Covid-caused deaths as CPHS has no information on cause of death. Rather, we focus on all-cause mortality, and estimate excess mortality from the onset of the pandemic relative to a pre-pandemic baseline, adjusting for seasonality.” [emphasis mine]

Alas, the study proceeds to do exactly what it declares it does not aim to do. It estimates Covid-caused deaths in India.

In fact, it concludes that while India’s official Covid death count as of end-June 2021 was 400,000, the actual death toll ( ‘excess deaths’) in India are between 3.4 million and 4.9 million.

To put it plainly, the study concludes that India is hiding dead bodies. Millions of dead bodies.

How does the study arrive at this conclusion?

Well…

For its first estimate, the study blithely extrapolates death data from just seven Indian states to the whole of India to estimate under-counted deaths or what it calls ‘excess deaths’.  In other words, the study decides that the averages of death data from Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh must be applied to the whole of India— comprising 28 states and 8 Union Territories—to figure the actual ‘excess deaths’ in India. And it arrives at the estimate of 3.4 million excess deaths.

For the second estimate, the study applies “international estimates of age-specific infection fatality rates (IFR)” to India.  To translate this gobbledygook into English:  the study assumes that because the infection fatality rate (IFR) is incredibly high in USA, EU countries and so on, then that incredibly high fatality rate must be the norm that India must obey too. And so, it blithely extrapolates IFR from USA, EU and other high-Covid-fatality nations to India to estimate around 4 million excess deaths.

For the third estimate, the study analyses data from the Consumer Pyramid Household Survey (CPHS). With admirable candour, the study admits that “There is reason for caution when relying on the CPHS for mortality estimates though. While CPHS has become a critical source of timely information on labour market and consumption trends, especially in the absence of timely and reliable official data, its representativeness has recently been questioned.” But that admission has not prevented the authors from relying on CPHS data to accuse India of hiding an  estimated 4.9 million excess deaths.

 In a nutshell – a very old and shriveled peanut shell – this study rests on the three very shaky pillars of incoherence, irrelevancy, and plain immaturity , reinforced with a strong foundation of meaninglessness.  

The kindest thing I can say about this study is that what it lacks in scientific rigor, it more than compensates with deep-set rigor mortis.

In passing: I wonder why the learned authors did not apply their IFR-based logic to the People’s Republic of China where the Covid-19 virus was actually born (or created), and whose Covid-related data is rather questionable to put it mildly? 

Especially when China, with a population of 1401,000,000 (give or take a few million Uighurs and Tibetans), officially reports a mere 4636 deaths out of a minuscule 92,364 cases – thus finding itself placed at 103rd  position in the Worldometer’s country list —below countries such as Montenegro at position 100 (pop. 628,150; total cases 100,755; deaths 1623) and Cyprus at position 102 (pop. 1,216,583; total cases 93,247; deaths 391)?

I place below a simple table, with an accompanying graphic, that I hope will inspire Abhishek Anand, Justin Sandefur, and Arvind Subramanian to take a long and very hard look at China’s Covid-19 data and assess the People’s Republic’s ‘excess deaths’ with the rigorous rigor mortis they’ve applied to India.  Please note that I have renamed the ‘serial number’ column as ‘Rank of Shame’ to mirror the spirit of this Olympics season and the spirit of Abhisekh et al.’s study: ((all data from Worldometer as on 22 July 2021, 1000 hours IST) :

Rank of ShameCountryTotal casesTotal deathsPopulation
1USA35,146,476625,808333,045,503
2India31,256,839419,0211,394,272,063
3Brazil19,474,489545,690214,149,270
..and many many countries later…   
100Montenegro100,8021624628,150
102Cyprus94,2613941,216,607
103China92,41446361,439,323,776
Spot the Odd Man Out?

In conclusion, I am grateful to the authors of this study for underlining two extraordinary and enduring Laws of Credibility that are adopted instinctively by vast swathes of Indian academia and Indian media.

Law 1. Scholars, especially Indian-born scholars, are far more capable of discerning ‘facts’ and analysing ‘data’ on India when they are sitting 11,000 kilometers away from India, than if they based themselves in India and did hard data gathering and field work in India.

Law 2. The credibility and worth of any academic research focused on India is directly proportional to the distance of the researchers from India; and the credibility and worth of the research increases exponentially if the researchers are located in a generally Westward direction from India.

Jai Hind. Hail Comrade Xi.